All the ways the deck is stacked in Fidesz’s favour

8 July 2025
Ildi Amon

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Lately, people whose opinions I trust have been acting like it’s a given that Tisza will win the election.

This scares the hell out of me because despite Tisza’s consistent lead in poll averages, Tisza’s groundswell of grassroots support and Fidesz’s multitude of unforced errors, Fidesz remains all-powerful in Hungary.

We must not underestimate the built-in dominance that Fidesz enjoys and what they might still do to put the thumb on the scale in their own favour. After all, powerful people who have a lot to lose are often the most dangerous when their backs are against the wall.

In thinking about all the ways Fidesz has stacked the deck in its own favour, I was reminded of the Hungarian playing cards, like those pictured above.

These “Magyar kártya” or “Tell cards,” were designed in Hungary in the 1830s and use the legend of Wilhelm Tell as an allegory for resistance against oppression.

Wilhelm Tell was a legendary Swiss folk hero from the 1300s who was forced by an Austrian bailiff, Gessler, to shoot an apple off his son’s head with a crossbow. Why? Tell had refused Gessler’s demand that everyone bow at his hat that he’d placed on a pole in the town square to humiliate them.

Tell succeeded in hitting the apple and later killed the bailiff, sparking a rebellion. He became a symbol of Swiss independence from Habsburg tyranny. (“William Tell” the movie is now on Netflix.)

During the 1848 revolution in Hungary — also against the Habsburgs — the Tell cards became a subtle symbol of freedom, resistance and national pride.

Today, these Hungarian playing cards could once again serve as a reminder that the deck may be stacked against us but if we work hard and band together, we the people still hold the ultimate trump card.

Still, this anecdote should not trivialise the fact that we are amid a David and Goliath battle and it will take a herculean effort to win the April 2026 elections.

Here’s some of what we’re up against:

Fidesz has changed election rules to suit itself

Did you know, Fidesz has never actually had the support of two-thirds of the people? You might be surprised because they’ve now had a string of two-thirds majorities in the parliament.

The reality is that in 2014 and 2018, Fidesz won just under 50% of actual votes and, in 2022, it won 54% of the vote….hardly the 66% you’d classify as “two-thirds.” Still in all of these elections it claimed a two-thirds supermajority of seats in the Parliament giving it out-sized powers — even to change the constitution.

How?

Here are some of the things Fidesz instituted in 2011 to turn elections in its favour:

Gerrymandering. Fidesz re-drew electorate boundaries to suit itself, meaning it can pick up more seats with fewer actual votes. For example, pro-opposition Budapest districts can have up to 30% more voters within them than Fidesz-friendly rural districts.
More gerrymandering. Boundaries were redrawn to split opposition-leaning neighborhoods between districts diluting their impact in any one of them.
Introducing the “winner’s compensation” bonus system. In Hungary, people vote both for their local candidate AND for what’s called a national party list. For the national list, parties submit a long list of candidates in advance and the more votes its list gets, the more of those candidates get into the parliament. In 2011, Fidesz invented a twist whereby any excess votes that the winning local candidate gets beyond what he or she needs to beat the opponent are not “wasted” — instead they are added to the party’s national list total. In other words, let’s say a Fidesz candidate gets 40,000 votes and the opposition candidate gets 30,000 votes, the difference (10,000 votes) is added to Fidesz’s national party list total. This creates a multiplier effect where the winning side becomes even more dominant.
Easier voting for likely Fidesz voters outside of Hungary. There are essentially two types of Hungarians living abroad: Dual citizens without a permanent residence address in Hungary (mostly pro-Fidesz and typically living in places like Romania, Serbia, the US and Australia), and Hungarian citizens who moved abroad in the last 10-20 years for work or study and generally retain a residence in Hungary (mostly opposition-leaning and live in places like Germany, the UK and Austria). According to the rules, those who don’t have residence in Hungary can vote by mail and do not need to present an ID in person whereas Hungarians with residency must physically go to a consulate or embassy, which might require long travel times and lengthy waits. In other words, it’s much easier for the pro-Fidesz group to vote, and much harder for the pro-opposition camp. The mail-in ballots — which are 90% for Fidesz — have helped contribute somewhere around 3-6 seats for Fidesz in the last few elections.

This is no joke. And there is nothing preventing them from making further changes before the April elections, which stacks the deck further in its favour.

Fidesz "controls" 80-90% of the media

According to multiple expert bodies (i.e. the European Centre for Press and Media Freedom, Reporters Without Borders and the International Press Institute), approximately 80-90% of Hungary’s media is in pro-Fidesz hands.

Taxpayer funded state media (like M1, Duna TV and Kossuth Radio) is essentially completely pro-Fidesz, flattering everything they do while ridiculing the opposition. Needless to say, over time, this has skewed public perception in their favour, especially in rural areas.

But they’ve also put their paws on privately-owned media as well.

In 2018, approximately 500 media outlets were “donated” to KESMA, the pro-Fidesz media foundation. This included well-known newspapers, websites, TV stations as well as small local papers that are hugely influential in regional areas.

500 media outlets — in a country of 9.6 million? Now you can start to understand the dominance of the centralised, pro-Fidesz message.

Orbán waived away any scrutiny by saying it was in the “public interest,” and that was that.

Quite aside from the KESMA thing, other media outlets, like Index and Origo, were simply purchased by Fidesz allies and their editorial directions swiftly moved in Fidesz’s favour. While the lefty Népszabadság was seemingly pressured to close right down.

Fidesz has also used taxpayer money to fund pro-Fidesz online influencers. Our money paid for ads that relentlessly pushed the pro-Fidesz message into the newsfeeds of Hungarians. Thankfully Meta, the parent company of Facebook, is banning political ads in the EU from October 2025, which should help curtail this particular advantage.

Fidesz has unfair access to billboard space

Signage is incredibly important in elections. Through political allies, Fidesz now holds indirect control over much of Hungary’s outdoor advertising infrastructure. This means Fidesz can saturate billboards with its political message (and often using taxpayer money by calling it an “informational message”).

According to experts, Publimont KFT owns up to 50-80% of Hungary’s billboards and city lights (which are those illuminated bus shelter signs)… Who owns Publimont, you may wonder?… Well, it used to be owned by Lajos Simicska (Orbán’s former bestie) and is now owned by Lőrinc Mészáros (Orbán’s current bestie). What a coincidence both happened to be signage magnates!

You cannot make this sh*t up!

Fidesz benefits from its strong stance on migrants

Many, many Hungarians (and many across the world to be fair), love Orbán due to his strong stance on migrants. They overlook his many personal flaws and the flawed way he runs the country because they like his migrant policy.

Many will not even consider an alternative to Fidesz as they are essentially a single issue voter. What may yet turn these voters is the diabolical state of their personal finances due to inflation, and the fact that Orbán does indeed let in tens of thousands of migrants — low-wage workers from Asia.

The good news for Hungarian voters is that Tisza has no argument with Fidesz’s migrant policy and want to keep the southern border fence — with the EU paying for it. BUT for many voters, Orbán has proven his bona fides in this space and they won’t abandon him.

Fidesz uses taxpayer money to campaign

Fidesz uses taxpayer money to promote itself under the guise of a public information campaign of national importance. Similarly, taxpayer-funded “national consultation” surveys double as propaganda due to their one-sided phrasing.

One consultation question, for example, asked: “Is there a need for a multi-year wage agreement between employers and employees, to achieve a minimum wage of 400,000 forints and an average wage of 1 million forints?”

I mean whose going to say No, I’d like to keep my wages low? But taxpayer money is used to ask these ridiculous questions that the government should really be sorting out without the need to “ask” just so the government can look like it’s crusading for the everyday worker.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Fidesz allies are contracted to print and pack the surveys — so they can skim some of that too!

Fidesz could tap into an even bigger warchest than just state funds. You never know but Fidesz could also use a portion of government loans from China and the Middle East to fund this hybrid party-government communication — ballooning the amount of money it has to work with during the campaign — whereas Tisza relies on direct donations from Hungarians.

Fidesz could try to block Péter Magyar, or the Tisza Party, from running at all

Some people might think I’m over the top for saying this, but a lot of what’s on this list is over the top and has already happened, so let’s not fool ourselves into thinking there’s anything Fidesz would be too ashamed to do.

Orbán has already started to lay the groundwork for why Péter Magyar should really be blocked from running. In an April 2025 interview on the ÖT YouTube channel he said the Tisza Party is not a actually a Hungarian political party but rather a foreign-funded “Brussels party”.

Both are false claims and both are illegal under Hungarian law, so if Orbán had a shred of evidence that Tisza is foreign funded he would have taken it to the authorities already.

BUT it shows that Fidesz is trying to discredit Tisza and plant the seeds that could give blocking Tisza plausibility.

Some experts say, other mechanisms Fidesz could use include preventing access to banking, finding some administrative loophole, or even imprisoning Péter Magyar on some trumped up charge.

I wouldn’t put it past the ratbags!

Fidesz might fund small opposition parties to split Tisza's vote

There have long been rumours that Fidesz funds opposition parties to give it the appearance of competitive politics without risking actual loss of power.

In political strategy, this technique is a form of “astroturfing” where small opposition parties are secretly funded to create the illusion of fairness and pluralism; to split the opposition vote; or to ensure the dominant power is never truly threatened by a genuine opposition.

When viewed in this light, having the impotent punching bag named Ferenc Gyurcsány around for so long was very useful indeed for Fidesz.

In terms of the upcoming election, it clearly hurts Tisza if the opposition vote is fragmented in any way. Some opposition players (Momentum and András Jámbor) have already stood aside for the greater good BUT there is nothing some people wouldn’t do for power/money so I do wonder what parties like DK and LMP will do… and what popular independents like Ákos Hadházy will do. I hope they’ll be on the right side of history and stand aside.

Also, I’m not claiming the above mentioned are supported by Fidesz, but Fidesz could try to entice some opposition parties/people OR create new micro political parties to carve away votes here and there.

Don’t think this is fanciful. Last month, András Fekete-Győr — the leader of Momentum — claimed that Fidesz tried to pay Momentum to run in 2026. They were patriotic enough to step aside.

There are also rumours that Fidesz will reduce the minimum entry level into Parliament from 5% to 1% — meaning some of these micro parties sitting sub-5% might feel encouraged to run. Let’s not forget, a seat in Parliament gives you a great salary and perks, so some of these sub-5% parties might be encouraged to run just to pick up the pay cheque.

Fidesz has stacked oversight bodies with its lackies

Fidesz has lined a multitude of influential “independent” “oversight” bodies with its people. And thanks to its two-thirds majority, it has not needed to reach any bipartisan support to do so.

Because many of these positions have long term limits that extend beyond April and require a two-thirds vote in parliament, if Tisza doesn’t win two-thirds it will have pro-Fidesz people in key functions presumably white-anting its new government. Sneaky, sneaky!

Here are just some of the “independent” “oversight” bodies that are led by or stacked with Fidesz people:

The Constitutional Court
The President of the National Judicial Office
The Prosecutor General
The Ombudsman
The National Election Commission
The Hungarian Competition Authority
The Media Council
The State Audit Office
The Sovereignty Protection Office (created from whole-cloth by Fidesz in the past year)
The Hungarian National Bank (the president)
The President himself (appointed by Fidesz)

All this also explains why Fidesz has been able to run amok — there has been no handbrake on it. We have well and truly let the foxes loose in the henhouse!

This is no bagatelle. Fairness has been sucked out of the entire system, and the deck is well and truly stacked in Fidesz’s favour.

Fidesz has gross feudalistic control of regional Hungary

Especially in rural and poorer regions, Fidesz cronies lord over the people.

The local mayor can essentially say which businesses will win EU-funded tenders, who gets access to municipality leasing agreements for business premises, or who gets municipal jobs. Needless to say this kind of control creates a kind of loyalty to Fidesz because your livelihood may quite literally depend on it.

More directly, there are also reports of votes being bought for a sack of potatoes, threats of job loss if you don’t vote for Fidesz, and municipality workers being expected to mobilise voters.

In rural areas with limited job options, if your boss says, “I’ll see you at the Fidesz rally on Saturday!” you’re hardly going to feel comfortable declining. Thankfully, thanks to Péter Magyar’s bravery more and more people are taking his lead and publicly supporting Tisza.

Fidesz's dirty tricks knows no bounds

With “normal” political there are just some things they would be too ashamed to do. Lies they just wouldn’t tell.

But Fidesz is not “normal.”

Instead of fighting the election on topics like healthcare, education and inflation Fidesz plays dirty tricks by trying to paint Péter Magyar as a shill for Brussels, Manfred Weber, Biden, Soros or Ukraine. Or saying that he would cause Hungary to join the Ukraine war or open the floodgates to migrants.

These tactics play on people’s fears and distracts them from Fidesz’s horrible governance.

And when the message gets saturation coverage and credence from its repetition on hundreds of media channels, it can start to stick in the minds of voters.

Fidesz could spy on Tisza with state resources

Let’s not forget that Fidesz controls the security apparatus. Would you really put it past them to use the state’s resources to spy on a political opponent?

This is not fanciful. Remember, Péter Magyar’s claim that his ex-girlfriend, Evelin Vogel, was paid by Fidesz allies for tapes she secretly recorded of him? Or his claim that they found listening devices in Tisza’s offices?

Russia could get involved to protect its man in the EU

It seems obvious that Orbán is Putin’s man in the EU and NATO*. And, if this is the case, Putin surely wouldn’t want to lose such a valuable asset. If Putin suspects Orbán is in trouble, there is little doubt in my mind that Russia is about to put the thumb on the scale in a big way.

What does this mean? Rubles donated — indirectly, of course — to the Fidesz campaign? A swarm of Russian bots inundating social media? A false flag attack of some sort in Transcarpathia (Kárpátalja) to manipulate public opinion? Russia bombing the western part of Ukraine, where many Hungarians live, to undergird Orbán’s point that war is coming to Hungary and only Orbán can protect the country?

Who knows what the Kremlin is cooking up!

The video above is worth watching and makes the point that Russia has tried to influence far less important elections, so we should have our guard up.

*Just some of the reasons I have a sneaky suspicion Orbán is Putin’s man: Many people in Fidesz have become rather warm and forgiving toward Russia — a country that did so much damage to Hungary that we’re still recovering from it. Hungary tried to block Sweden’s entry into NATO for a looooong time. Russian hackers attacked Hungary’s foreign ministry networks, and Hungary didn’t seem to give a hoot — the Foreign Minister even accepted a little certificate of friendship from Russia shortly thereafter. Fidesz seems to take Russia’s side in its invasion of Ukraine and is being downright rude to Zelensky (see billboard above). It’s reported that the EU and NATO are cautious with what intel they share with Hungary because they think Hungary will run off and tell the Russians.

Orbán might play the Trump card

Trump has so far been a big supporter of Orbán. Trump could easily meddle in Hungary’s elections by vocally pushing for Orbán or inviting Orbán to the White House just before the election. Having a US President endorse you is something a number of Hungarians may find intoxicating.

Fidesz is a well-oiled machine

This is not a nefarious act, it’s just a fact. After 20 years in power and 35 years in politics there’s no doubt Fidesz is a well-oiled political machine. They have deep experience in running elections, extensive voter databases, and the people and infrastructure in place (down to the smallest village) to maximise their position.

Comparatively, Tisza is less than two years old. Although they are building up at a phenomenal pace, you can’t argue that it’s a level playing field in this regard either.

Don’t let Tisza’s polling success lull you into a false sense of security: This is not the case of two parties of equal weight battling it out, like the Dems and Republicans. This is more like a Bantamweight (speedy and strategic; knockout power increasing) against a Heavyweight (devastating power; slower but deadly).

Fidesz benefits from incumbency

Many people are bored of Orbán, yes, but incumbency is a huge benefit in parliamentary politics. The data shows, if you are already in the seat you are more likely to win.

Risk-averse voters think, “better the devil you know.”

Name recognition is also higher for Fidesz — there will be low-media consumption voters who have still not really heard of Tisza or Péter Magyar. Whomever Tisza’s local candidate ends up being will likely not be as well-known as the voter’s existing member of parliament.

Remember, for constituency seats Fidesz currently has an incumbent in 87 seats — Tisza has 0. This means Tisza has absolutely no incumbency benefit at all whereas Fidesz has a lot of it.

Fidesz could form a coalition with Mi Hazánk

Tisza has said that it will not join forces with any of the smaller opposition parties as that approach has led the opposition up the primrose path in the past, but Fidesz has a natural coalition partner in the far right Mi Hazánk party (Our Homeland Movement).

Mi Hazánk is at about 3-6% in the polls, which could push Fidesz over the line if the election is close and it needs a quick coalition partner.

It's not all bad news, folks!

With sky-high inflation and Hungary’s infrastructure rotting away coupled with a charismatic opposition leader who has a knife between his teeth, the scales are falling off the eyes of more and more Hungarians.

Orbán’s dirty tricks seem less effective and Tisza has led poll averages since December 2024.

Péter Magyar has been extremely effective at dominating social media and staying on top of the news cycle. And he is relentlessly touring regional Hungary to build his base. His rallies get a huge turnout.

Thousands of Tisza Sziget volunteer clubs have sprouted up all over Hungary, mobilising and motivating people in their communities.

The remaining independent media is doing a phenomenal job on the smell of an oily rag with holding the government to account.

Even musicians, like Majka, have jumped into the fray with his anti-Fidesz music clip getting more than 25 million views.

Hungarians are engaged in politics and it’s a delight to see.

The tide is turning and the will of the people may be stronger than all of the influences described in this list.

Here's how you can help

Here’s what YOU can do to help counterbalance Fidesz’s dominance:

Vote. Hungary doesn’t have compulsory voting, so it’s on you to make the extra effort to vote. If you are outside of Hungary, speak to your nearest consulate or embassy early (now!!) to make sure you have your ducks in a row.
Speak to every Hungarian you meet. You never know when something you say might convert someone from a Fidesz voter >> to an undecided >> to a Tisza voter. Aim to drum up as much support in your network as you can.
Support independent media. Following the Facebook pages and YouTube channels of independent media outlets, analysts, and content creators helps them do their work. I’ve created a list of who to support here.
Use your voice on social media. By posting political content on your own page you can spread the word to a broader audience. Like, comment and share Péter Magyar’s Facebook posts as increased engagement increases reach.
Join your nearest Tisza Sziget club. Meet like-minded people and help out with volunteering and community-building — as the election draws near the more active people are the better. Search on Facebook for your nearest club or search here. If there’s not one in your area, start one!
If you are in Hungary, go to Tisza events and rallies. It helps to show your physical support when Péter Magyar holds rallies or events. Magyar advertises his upcoming events on his Facebook page.
Support the Tisza Party financially. Subscribe to their “regime change” card or buy merch from Tisza’s webshop.
Take to the streets. If Fidesz tries something really grotesque to undermine a free and fair election, Hungarians must take to the streets.
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