Poll averages have Fidesz 5 percentage points behind Tisza but some polls put them up to 15 points behind. Even Fidesz’s own pollsters are saying “the scissors are closing” and Fidesz politician Janos Lazar says if the elections were held now it’s 50-50 who would win.
Regardless of who you believe, it’s clear the best case scenario for Fidesz is that they are neck-and-neck, the worst case is that they are trailing behind.
A lot can happen between now and April 2026, but I believe it’s over for Fidesz. Here are 7 of the reasons why — looking solely at Fidesz’s role in its own demise not the numerous other factors at play:
1. There's no good political argument they can make
The number 1 reason that Fidesz is floundering is that it hasn’t done a good job of governing the country, so they don’t have a good political argument. Vote for us because we’re better for the economy! We’re better for schools and hospitals! We’re better for infrastructure and jobs! We’re better for cost of living! We’re better for families!
These are not serious arguments, and the Hungarian people know it.
Most Hungarians, if they were being honest, would not want Hungary to keep going on its current trajectory.
Of course, some Hungarians don’t mind Viktor Orbán freedom fighting against the EU, but 85% of Hungarians want to stay in the EU (despite its shortcomings) so Orbán’s anti-EU rhetoric is hardly a big vote winner.
The only credible feather in Fidesz’s cap is their anti-immigration stance. Many Hungarians (and conservatives globally) are pleased that Hungary didn’t let it migrants during the 2015 migrant crisis. Fidesz doesn’t reveal, of course, the tens of thousands of Asian low-wage workers it is inviting in, so many Hungarians cling to the fact that Fidesz will protect it from “undesirable” migrants.
BUT, given people vote first and foremost based on their bank balance (“It’s the economy, stupid!”), immigration as a singular positive is not going to fly.
Fidesz has been resting on its laurels in this regard and has forgotten to actually manage the country well.
You can see that poor Fidesz supporters who are trying to fight the good fight on social media really struggle because they don’t have a confident or good argument to make.
Yes, they can say nasty things about Péter Magyar, but they can’t really credibly say anything good about Fidesz.
Remember, they also live in Hungary — so they’re also looking at their bank accounts, too.
Fidesz tried to gin up its support base by launching the Harcosok Klubja (“Fight Club”) because they too can see the lacklustre Fidesz presence on social media, BUT when a person can’t credibly think of something good to say they’re not going to spend their time on Facebook defending you.
2. Fidesz is turning on itself
Whether it’s Fidesz politician Lazar Janos saying that Fidesz oligarchs, like Hungary’s richest man and Orbán’s friend Lorincz Meszaros, shouldn’t flaunt their wealth so obviously. Or another Fidesz politician Tibor Navracsics saying the party would drop further in the polls if Orbán was replaced as the leader — a comment seen as a dig at anyone trying to position himself as the heir.
Or general Fidesz views that things like Orbán calling people “bugs” or Tamas Menczer accosting Péter aggressively outside are a children’s care home are unhelpful.
For a party that has had an ironclad hold on politics, seeing these internal machinations is a sign that there is a level of panic and disunity.
The more people point fingers publically the more they lose that image as the party that’s always cool, calm and collected. Part of Fidesz’s appeal has always been the perception that they know what they’re doing and are a mature pair of hands on the steering wheel. Now, doubts are emerging.
That’s not all, several times now Péter has appeared to pre-emptively know what Fidesz is up to. For example, when he revealed a day earlier that his ex-girlfriend would release secret recordings of him, or the time when he new days in advance that Fidesz would withdraw Alexandra Szentkiralyi from the Budapest mayoral race.
This indicates that there is a mole in Fidesz. It must be unsettling to be unsure who among you is a traitor.
3. They're making unforced errors galore
Supporting anti-Hungarian George Simion in the Romanian presidential elections. Being aggressive with Tisza volunteers and looking unhinged as a result. The President of Hungary saying he won’t do the traditional NYE address. Orbán calling Hungarians who don’t agree with him stink bugs.
Why? Why? Why?
All of these things — and many more — make Fidesz look utterly amateurish.
For example, no one forced Orbán to say that the economy would get off to a “flying start” in 2025… making such a claim only makes him look like an old fool when the worse-than-expected economic results came out in March.
Fidesz keeps making unforced errors and Péter Magyar swoops in and takes advantage.
For example, when Orbán showed support for the Hungarian-hating George Simion in Romania, Péter said he would take a 300-kilometre walk to Romania.
When Fidesz supporters swore at Tisza supporters, Péter put out a video montage positioning Tisza as the party of peace.
When the President of Hungary relinquished the traditional NYE address, Péter said “no problem! I’ll do it!”
And when Orbán called fellow Hungarians stink bugs, Tisza supporters released a torrent of memes mocking him and declaring “Je suis poloska!”
Previously, Fidesz seemed so clever at politics, but now I’m thinking maybe they only looked so effective because they didn’t really have an opposition to contend with?
Now that they do, the unforced errors are piling up.
4. Orbán looks slow and out of touch
Politics is visual. Just look at the role played in the US elections by comparisons between Trump’s energy and Biden’s lethargy.
Physically, Orbán is looking old and overweight compared to Magyar. When Péter did his 300-kilometre walk to Romania, you just couldn’t imaging Orbán doing the same.
Every couple of months you see Péter doing things like rowing or cycling or running. When I Google search photos for Orbán playing sport there’s only a couple of images of him playing football more than 10 years ago.
It matters.
Orbán’s wife is also look haggard and low-energy compared to Péter’s youthful girlfriend who walked with him to Romania, rode a horse as part of the March 15th commemorations, and takes part in gimmicks like at Easter when she wore traditional dress.
It matters.
And it’s not just physically.
Orbán also looks low energy when it comes to engaging with the people. While Péter is out doing regular speeches, interviews, shaking hands with fans, taking an endless number of selfies, and leading activations like giving gifts to children in need or handing out free firewood, Orbán looks hermetically sealed away only doing friendly radio interviews and only meeting with pre-approved groups.
When you compare the pair, it looks like Orbán doesn’t want to be amongst the people, or even worse that he is scared of the reception he might get.
5. They're not reigning in their gaudy displays of wealth
One of the most shocking aspects of this election campaign is that Orbán has not banned his oligarchs and family from vulgar displays of wealth.
A WAG’s bags could literally cost him the election. C’mon man put your foot down!
Designer clothes, cars, private jets and helicopters… None of it is a good look alongside double-digit inflation.
None of this represents Orbán’s promised land of a group of Hungarian business people who the government would prop up and who would then re-invest in Hungary.
What it looks like is oligarchs and nepo babies who the Hungarian government (read: the Hungarian people) have made very rich taking it all for themselves.
And, instead of giving back to the Hungarian people they are actually giving it to Ferrari, LVMH and private jet manufacturers.
With less than one year until the election these vulgar displays of wealth make it look like they are far from sorry…instead they are thumbing their noses in the faces of Hungarians. Shame on them.
6. Orbán called Hungarians "bugs" -- never a winning strategy
Remember when Hilary Clinton called Trump supporters “deplorables”? She’ll never live it down because you’re meant to attack the opponent not the voter.
Dumb move.
Well, Orbán did something similar (and possibly worse) on March 15th when he called people who don’t support him stink bugs who have survived winter but will be exterminated by spring.
This kind of think reeks of desperation just as it did with Hilary Clinton. It backfired because it’s not very statesmanlike (another of Orbán’s appeals) and it lead to a torrent of memes on Facebook that mocked Orbán
7. Fidesz has lost the zeitgeist
There were many years there where it was genuinely cool in Hungary to support Fidesz. That time has evaporated.
They’ve lost the zeitgeist. Hungarians are mad as hell at them and, finally, they have someone — Péter Magyar — to rally behind.
The social media engagement of Tisza and Magyar far outstrips that of Fidesz and Orbán. YouTube video views are many times the size for Tisza-related content.
Fidesz literally has to tell its followers to comment more on social media. I mean seriously.
Crowd size for Péter is huge whereas Fidesz politicians like Lazar can barely get a handful of people to come see them.
Pop culture touchpoints like rapper Majka released a scathing song about Orbán’s corruption — it now has 23 million views.
It’s no longer cool to support Fidesz, and people’s anger at them is bubbling over.
Yes, the polls show that Tisza is ahead but you don’t need polls to show you that the energy is behind Tisza.
Barring some completely unforeseen major development, it would be hard to get momentum to shift back in their favour.
Could they promise to start governing properly now? Could they promise to reign in their corruption and theft? Could they promise handouts when everyone knows the State is broke?
Who would believe them?
+1 reason: Fidesz can't seem to be able to pivot from what has worked in the past
Fidesz very effectively used fear in campaigns gone by, and it can’t seem to pivot now that that strategy isn’t working so well.
Let’s count everything Hungarians have been told to fear: Soros. The EU. Ursula von der Leyen. Brussels. Ukraine. Zelensky. Biden. Globalists. Migrants. Gays. Poor old Manfred Weber. Péter Magyar, obviously.
It’s a lot. People are tired of it.
They want to live well not be constantly shadow boxing this, that and the other.
It feels like Orbán successfully “defeats” one opponent only to suddenly wake up and find the next one plastered on billboards across the country.
It’s tiresome.
It’s like the boy who cried wolf.
Hungarians are realising, it might feel good that your leader is protecting you from all these “forces,” but you can’t buy milk with the word “Soros” and you can’t buy medicines with the word “Manfred Weber.” So what good does it really do for the everyday person?
What the people really want Orbán to fight is inflation — that is something they really do fear when they have nothing left at the end of the month.
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