Panic at the disco! Fidesz is totally stumped

For a Party that has always spoken about stratégiai nyugalom (“strategic calm”) Fidesz sure has caught a case of impulsive panic.

Baffled. Bewildered. Dazed and Confused. Disoriented. And Totally Stumped. All the ways you might describe just how at a loss Fidesz is now that it has met its match with an absolute beast of an opposition leader.  

Over the past 15 years, Orban has had a buffet of hopeless opposition parties to contend with. One was led by the reviled Ferenc Gyurcsany. Some were basically satellite parties of Fidesz. A couple were Lefty parties that were non-starters in terms of gaining broad appeal. One was even a joke party called the Two-Tailed Dog Party.

For Fidesz, it’s been easy being the Top Dog when the opponent was the equivalent of a pack of malnourished runts. 

In such a context, it’s easy to become overweight, lazy, complacent, out of touch, and out of practice.

In other words, a little competition never hurt anyone — and Fidesz has not had any to speak of. 

As one of my favourite commentators Robert Puzser put it: Orban has tended to his little opposition parties as if tending to little bonsai plants. Letting them grow enough to give his government legitimacy and pruning them back before they give him any trouble.

In place of a domestic opposition, Fidesz has gone about creating other forms of opposition: Soros, The EU, Globalists, Ursula von der Leyen. Because in politics it’s always good to look like your beating some indomitable foe. 

With no true opposition party on the horizon. Things were looking good.

Then along comes Peter Magyar. Tough as nails. Quick on his feet. Hard to trap. 

So far, Fidesz has tried not mentioning Peter’s name at all, claiming he is a wife basher, positioning him as an EU shill, painting him as a traitor, verbally attacking him on the street, releasing recordings of his private conversations, orchestrating tell-all interviews with his ex wife and ex girlfriend, putting the taxpayer-funded propaganda machine in full force against him, wearing him down with character assassinations, and even calling Tisza supporters stink bugs. A small number of Fidesz supporters have even resorted to violence. 

Most recently, and most desperately, Fidesz has even tried to blame Tisza for the state of hospitals. But there was also that time Orban tried to dismiss Peter as a lightweight by describing him as “slim-fit-latte-avokado” …. to which Peter released a video of him making an avocado latte in his home much to the internets laughter.

Nothing. Has. Worked.

Peter’s Tisza Party is now at 51% according to one reputable poll, and even pollsters more favourable to Fidesz say “the scissors are closing” — a clever Hungarian saying that means that the gap between the two parties is closing in Tisza’s favour.

The joke among Tisza supporters now is that every time Fidesz tries a new tactic it adds 5% to Tisza’s lead.

Flat footed and unsure, Orban — the master politician — doesn’t seem to know what to do next. 

Fidesz has also made some weird unforced errors that make it look weak. For example, the President declined to do the traditional New Year’s Eve address — so Peter swooped in and did it himself and got hundreds of thousands of online views. 

In addition, given Fidesz’s corruption is such a sore point for voters you would have thought Orban would have put a ban any of its hangers on from displaying showy signs of luxury. Instead, his kid was photographed getting off a private jet after enjoying a holiday at one of the Maldives most expensive resorts. Other are still getting papped with designer bags, clothes and watches worth hundreds of thousands of euros.

Needless to say, Peter has several character traits that make him a formidable opposition leader. He comes from Fidesz so he knows all the tricks in the book and has clearly thought long and hard about how to counter them. He has incredible political instincts and is also genuinely into the things that Hungarian people want in a leader: Smart, Patriotic, Funny, Sassy, Tough. 

When Fidesz tries to shame him…he bats it back with a joke or a counter-punch.

General events also don’t help Fidesz. In February of 2024 the Party lost two of its charismatic female leaders — the President and the Justice Minister amid the clemency scandal. The Hungarian economy is horrible right now (double digit inflation in past two years and a technical recession last year). Trump — who Orban was banking on — was not able to solve the Ukraine war in 24 hours. The EU is not releasing funds due to Fidesz’s misbehaviour meaning the country’s monetary cabinets are bare. The oligarchs are no doubt going hungry and likely circling. Popular rapper Majka released a song about Orban’s corruption that has since gotten 20 million views.

Plus, Fides has been in power for 15 years (and four more years in an earlier term before that)…people naturally get bored. Any promises they make now seem hollow — like why haven’t you fixed it already? 

Orban himself is looking old and unfit. Compared to Peter’s relative youth and his absolutely boundless energy, Orban is looking positively lethargic. 

While Orban dodges press interviews, doesn’t ever meet the general public (only highly-curated small audiences), and has a totally impersonal Facebook presence, Peter is doing non-stop stump speeches, walking amongst thousands of supporters each week stopping to shake hands and take selfies, making time for press interviews, and posting on social media several times a day — posts that he clearly writes himself. 

So what can Fidesz do to stop the Tisza juggernaut? At this point, I’m not sure. It wasted 15  years when it could have made significant improvements to the country. Orban was so power hungry he didn’t resign and handover to a new leader who might have positioned Fidesz for the future. And, Orban is likely so self-confident and set in his ways that he can’t even fathom how to combat this unprecedented challenger.

Plus, I’m not one to give Fidesz any free tips.