Holy sh*#! Tisza is polling at 51%

Firstly, no single poll — especially a year out from an election — is all that predictive because anything could change one day to the next. BUT, the trends are helpful and show that Tisza is surging in popularity while Fidesz’s vote share is slowly eroding. How sticky this will be — time will tell. 

Poll averages and trends are more helpful because they combine different polling methodologies (i.e. different question styles, different databases, different approaches) over time so they provide a more fulsome view. You can see a graph of the poll averages below. As you can see, the poll averages show that Tisza overtook Fidesz in about November 2024 and has retained that lead ever since.

More than anything, the psychological impact of the 51% result and the overall trend is extremely important. 

For politicians a good result can boost their confidence and make them more bullish, while a poor poll can leave politicians second guessing themselves, lashing out as they look for someone/something to blame, and thrashing about as they look for potential solutions. We can see that now as Fidesz is defensive and panic-stricken in its approach.

For voters, the psychological impact is also important. No one wants to be on a sinking ship, so Fidesz supporters may find themselves less enthusiastic to vote and might sit this one out if they really can’t stomach voting for Tisza. 

Conversely, people love to win and so Fidesz supporters and undecideds might switch to Tisza if they feel they would prefer to be on the winning side. 

The smallish number of people who continue to support onoe of the minor parties (like DK, Mi Hazank or MKKP) might vote for Tisza at the end of the day because these polls give them hope that a vote for Tisza will remove Fidesz from government.

And, Tisza supporters themselves will feel more and more confident if the polls continue in this direction and they will become even more bullish in their support, feeling more confident to go out and advocate for Tisza among friends, family and colleagues.

For all these reasons, although these polls don’t mean that this will definitely be the result at the end of the day, they are impactful and may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.