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Key takeaways from the 2024 EU Parliament election result

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Tisza lost but won

I could barely believe my eyes as the results came in. Tisza got 29.6% of the votes in the 2024 EU Parliament elections coming in at second place… 

While the only thing that really matters in politics is winning — at that means first place — this was still a shockingly good result for a 2-month-old party, and it changed the political landscape in Hungary for good. 

With 1,352,699 votes, Tisza became the main opposition party and a credible threat to Fidesz. The result was so strong that it swept away all the small parties that had been so ineffectual for so long. By winning 7 seats (of Hungary’s 21-seat allocation), it guaranteed Tisza’s presence in Hungarian politics for at least the 5-year term period. 

Tisza’s acceptance into the EPP faction (the biggest faction) also gives it the gravitas, support and connections that newborn political parties can only dream of.

Basically, this result felt like a win. And it is an excellent springboard from which to fight the 2026 Hungarian elections. 

Separate to the EU vote, local elections were also held throughout Hungary for local councils and mayors. Tisza ran in Budapest and, remarkably, got 27.34% of the vote compared to Fidesz’s 28.69% — so basically a tie. This means that Tisza can officially chime in on EU matters as well as capital city matters giving it more of a voice in the lead-up to the 2026 elections.

Fidesz won but lost

Fidesz won the election because it received the most votes (2,048,211 to be exact) netting it 44.6% of the overall vote meaning it gets 11 seats out of the 21 seats allocated to Hungary. But while, yes, Fidesz clearly won, this was a troubling result for many reasons: 

  • This was their worst result in the history of EU Parliament elections (they have always won more than 50% of the vote, except for 2004 when they were in opposition and got 47%)
  • A 2-month-old party that was basically a one-man-band got a huge 30% of the vote leaving Fidesz with a huge headache by the name of Peter Magyar to contend with
  • With Tisza’s demolition of the smaller parties, Fidesz lost all of its favourite punching bags that it could always beat so easily
  • The person they had wanted to lead their EU Parliament delegation — Varga Judit — resigned in disgrace before the elections, and her replacement Deutsch Tamas can barely speak English meaning ongoing embarrassment
  • Tisza was accepted into the EPP faction (Fidesz’s former faction) meaning Tisza is with the big dogs and Fidesz was left scrambling to find a home

The smaller parties got wiped out

Sadly for all the small opposition parties, they faired poorly and Tisza has basically swept them off the map to become the largest — and you could say only — relevant opposition party. 

  • The DK coalition lost 3 seats compared to last time and now has only 2 seats
  • Momentum lost 2 and now has 0 seats
  • Jobbik lost 1 seat and now has 0 seats
  • The only other small party beyond the the DK coalition to get in is Mi Hazank with just 1 seat
 
Peter Magyar might be saying that this election was Fidesz’s “waterloo moment” but in reality it’s sayonara to all these small parties.

What can you tell from the voter breakdown?

Turnout

  • Turnout was 59.46%, which is incredibly high. To give you an idea, the closest turnout was in 2019 with 43.36% but it’s been as low as 28.97% turnout in 2019. 
  • This could be for two reasons: 1) Mayoral elections were held on the same day and people are very invested in who their local representatives are. 2) The Fidesz-Tisza matchup was exciting and people were keen to have a voice.
  • This is a dangerous sign for Fidesz, because if Tisza grows its popularity AND people are invested enough to show up to vote this could be a disaster for them at the next elections.
 
Inside vs outside of Hungary

  • Hungarians in the diaspora voted 90.03% for Fidesz and only 4.42% for Tisza, which is obviously vastly different to how Hungarians actually living in Hungary saw things which is 44.8% vs 29.6% respectively. You can see the difference starkly in the graphic below.
  • What this means is that the less day-to-day contact you have with what it means to live with the impact of the Fidesz government the more favourably you view them.

Tisza’s best results by county

Tisza’s best performances were in Budapest and Pest county (the area surrounding the capital), which is not surprising given Fidesz tends to fair poorly in the capital regardless. 

Tisza also bettered it’s average result in the following counties: Csongrád-Csanád, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Komárom-Esztergom, Békés, Hajdú-Bihar. This is interesting because these regions are all over Hungary showing that he can build strong support country wide not just around Budapest or in the Western half.

Here’s the list of counties from most support for Tisza to least:

Budapest – 32.81%
Pest – 32.09%
Komárom-Esztergom – 31.74%
Csongrád-Csanád – 31.71%
Győr-Moson-Sopron – 30.55%
Hajdú-Bihar – 30.28%
Békés – 29.82%
Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok – 29.69%
Veszprém – 29.28%
Fejér – 29.21%
Heves – 28.74%
Bács-Kiskun – 28.6%
Zala – 28.19%
Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén – 27.3%
Somogy – 27.19%
Baranya – 27.14%
Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg – 26.8%
Vas – 26.73%
Tolna – 24.94%
Nógrád – 24.43%
 
The map below shows the counties from strongest (darkest colour) support for Tisza to the weakest (lightest colour):
 

 Settlement size

Tisza basically did better the larger the settlement whereas Fidesz did better the smaller the settlement. 

There are probably countless reasons for this, but a couple of big ones are that in bigger cities people are more educated, they have access to more information and they are more engaged in politics. They may be less risk-averse and more open to change. Also, in smaller settlements Fidesz may be more embedded in the local power structure that affects people day-to-day so people may be somewhat “afraid” to vote for anyone else.
 
You can see the difference starkly in the graphic below. While in Budapest Fidesz and Tisza performed evenly, as the population size of the location gets smaller Fidesz support zooms up. 

This is why Peter Magyar’s continuous touring of regional Hungary is so important. Tisza cannot win the 2026 elections without winning over the regions.

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