As much as Fidesz tries to position itself as the forever-underdog of Hungarian politics, it’s very much the establishment.
Its associates fill the Rich Lists, its affiliates stack various “independent” oversight bodies from the Constitutional Court to the Media Council, its cronies use tax taxpayer money as a private slush fund for propaganda and campaigning, its oligarchs win an outsized portion of government tenders, and its politicians rule the roost with feudalistic control in the regions. For example, just recently a taxpayer funded municipal worker reported being told to distribute Fidesz campaign leaflets as part of his job.
Therefore, given the establishments aversion to anyone threatening their position of power, it’s no surprise to see Fidesz treat brand-new opposition leader Peter Magyar like the Democrats treated Donald Trump when both hit their respective political landscapes like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Before we get to how Fidesz’s reaction to Magyar has been similar to that of the establishment Dems and Republicans when they tried to sideline Trump in the early days, let’s look at the similarities between Magyar’s rise and Trump’s:
- Both started completely new political movements that feel like a lot more than just parties
- Both want to drain the swamp with Magyar stating he wants to put an end to the entire Orban-Gyurcsany era
- Both have insane grassroots support with Magyar attracting thousands of people at his events — even on winter weekdays in small towns
- Both supporter groups proudly wear branded party merch
- Both have tough retorts to anyone trying to attack them — remember when Melania Trump said “when you attack him, he will punch back 10 times harder”? … It’s kind of like that with Magyar
- Both have a sense of humour
- Both are like teflon with their support remaining strong even in the face of attacks and scandals
- Both are as tough-as-nails withstanding the scrutiny and pressure, and both seem to enjoy it
- Both have incredible energy levels
- Both keep people guessing — and watching
- Both know how to get organic social media and mainstream media attention
- Both are good at highlighting their vision in simple terms instead of mealy-mouthed political spin
- Both want to put their countries first with the primary focus on domestic not global issues
- Both are for the working class despite their more elite backgrounds
Underestimating their new opponent
The biggest error Fidesz made with Magyar (and that the Dems and old-school Republicans made with Trump) was underestimating him.
Fidesz underestimated Magyar even when he was still on their side, married to the Justice Minister. While her star rose they never gave him good positions despite his political heritage and now obvious skills. It reminded me of when Obama roasted Trump at the White House Correspondents Dinner, which is rumoured to have made Trump run.
When Magyar launched the Tisza party just before the EU Parliamentary elections in 2024, Orban could scarcely say his name. They literally said the “balloon would soon pop.”
This was their first mistake.
The reaction is best described as “aghast” that a little go-getter like Magyar would dare to go toe-to-toe with the power ecosystem they had carefully cultivated for decades.
Then, filled with horror and shock at Magyar’s 30% result in the elections (a party that had come from 0% in just a few months) they continued to be dismissive for months.
Not recognising the danger, they went on summer holidays in 2024 while Magyar went to work, going from hospital to hospital uncovering the decay.
While Magyar spoke non-stop about genuine issues like healthcare and education, Fidesz lent on ad hominem attacks (Poloska Peti or Psycho Peti). The Dems did the same with Trump. They ridiculed him as an orange buffoon but never addressed how both the Dems had failed the American working class so badly that they would vote for an orange buffoon over them.
They avoided addressing their own skeletons (i.e. “Why did the President give clemency to someone who protected a pedophile?”) while Magyar took Christmas gifts to orphanages.
Fidesz watched on like a deer in headlights for a year before recognising they were badly losing the online engagement battle. By the time they launched their failing Harcosok Klubja (replaced by Digitalis Polgarik Korok), Tisza had flipped the script and started doing old school newspapers in regions with low political engagement.
Orban — hidden away from the people and only ever doing friendly interviews — only started branching out into podcast interviews in the summer of 2025 — 18 months into Magyar doing press and being available to answer general public questions almost daily.
Fidesz thought that it could rest on its laurels — its past popularity, its control of the power structures. They underestimate the grassroots work Magyar and his team were putting in.
Dismissing Tisza Party fans as "bugs"
The most obvious thing that Orban has done that perfectly matches the Dems is calling Hungarian voters “stinkbugs” in his March 15th speech. But, whereas Hillary Clinton called MAGA supporters “a basket of deplorables” and then realised her mistake, Orban leant into it even posting a video of him sweeping bugs away (above).
When you start calling your own people bugs, you’ve really crossed the rubicon, and while Orban has always been at pains to paint himself as a statesman for whom daily politics is beneath him, this positions him firmly in the mud with the best of them.
And while Tisza fans now proudly identify as “poloska” bugs many Fidesz supporters would also find footage of Orban cleaning the balcony distasteful.
Trying to find technical ways to beat Magyar
Over the years Trump has been dragged into court multiple times — mugshot above. MAGA perceived it as trying to silence Trump via legal maneuvers because other methods didn’t work.
Fidesz is trying similar with Magyar.
For example, Fidesz is trying to introduce a new rule for Hungarian members of the European Parliament (of which Magyar is one) that they have to file asset declarations in Hungary in addition to what they already file under EU rules. The draft law says the National Electoral Office could then revoke a Hungarian MEP’s mandate if they don’t comply.
After 15 years of living happily without this requirement, this new rule is clearly targeted at Magyar and shows that Fidesz is willing to weaponise the legal system.
Separately, Fidesz-aligned authorities have repeatedly requested that the European Parliament waive Magyar’s immunity so they can investigate Magyar throwing a phone into the Danube (it allegedly happened) and insider trading (strongly denied).
The deck is stacked in Fidesz’s favour in so many ways and it’s not just lawfare that’s on the cards.
Fidesz could try changing the election rules, try to hamper independent press, or sneakily fund their campaign with taxpayer money meaning they have a vastly bigger war chest. They recently removed campaign spending cap limits.
As with Trump, who became a martyr in many supporters eyes when he was dragged through the courts, if they try any outlandish funny business with Magyar they might make him more popular than ever.
Framing Magyar as a foreign agent
When someone comes out of the blue promising to dismantle existing power structures, the establishment naturally wants to ascribe it to some shady outside force. It can’t possibly be the people themselves rising up in anger.
Trump was accused of being a Russian shill, Magyar is accused of being an agent of Brussels, Ukraine, Soros, and even Biden initially….
The problem is that it’s all so unbelievable.
We all watched Magyar (and Trump for that matter) build his grassroots popularity via the kind of hard work few people would be capable of sustaining and the kind of political genius very few politicians possess.
Making fun of Magyar's self-promotion
The respective establishments in the US and Hungary tried to dismiss Trump and Magyar as narcissistic but neither side reckoned with the reality that both politicians are supremely talented at getting themselves out there. And this is a feature not a bug. That’s how they became so popular.
Magyar has spoken of the fact that photos of himself get far more engagement on Facebook, so of course he will post such photos to help get his message out there.
Both are cults of personality. People want to see Trump and Magyar. Let’s just say, people don’t go to Trump rallies to see Marco Rubio speak.
Thinking skeletons would end Magyar
Grab em by the pussy. I could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and wouldn’t lose any voters.
The Dems assumed these would end Trump, but support for his overall message of America First was so strong that people simply ignored them.
Same with Magyar.
Fidesz thought trying to falsely frame Magyar as a wife beater or release audio of him talking about voters’ “stinky breath” or orchestrate tell-all interviews with his exes would end him.
What they didn’t realise — and still haven’t — is people are so angry at Fidesz that they are willing to swallow any potential flaws in Magyar. And, more importantly, Magyar’s flaws pale in comparison to Fidesz’s flaws in government.
Not understanding why the public is mad as hell
Neither Fidesz nor the Dems / establishment Republicans could bring themselves to confront why the public is mad as hell at them.
Failure to govern properly over decades.
The US establishment thought elections would ping-pong between them for eternity, Fidesz thought it has the opposition squared away and had a lack of imagination that someone new — from its own ranks — would appear..
Neither establishment made one single effort to self-reflect. Have we been neglecting the country? Have we been focussed on the wrong thing? Have we been enriching ourselves while letting the people slide into poverty?
They keep thinking if they just communicate more harshly (if we call Trump Hitler one more time) the public will swing back to them.
No. This is a huge mistake. By trying to dismiss the real arguments of the new opposition, they made people angrier.
Voters think: Even now you are ignoring us and dismissing us. We’ll show you.
Trump first showed them in 2016. Ten years later, it’s Magyar’s turn in 2026.
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