In 1992, Queen Elizabeth II made a speech to the British Parliament in which she declared the year her “annus horribilis”. To start with, her son Prince Andrew had separated from Sarah Ferguson Duchess of York. This was followed by her daughter, Princess Anne, announcing her divorce in the spring. And in summer, gossip about Prince Charles’s failing marriage to Diana reached fever pitch. Before autumn had ended, Windsor Castle was literally on fire.
“1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an annus horribilis.” — Queen Elizabeth II
Five countries over and 32 years later, Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban Viktor might take solace in the fact that all leaders have terrible years from time to time. Here’s a look at why Orban is likely to look back on 2024 as his annus horribilis.
Report reveals the President gave a paedophile clemency
It all kicked off with this article on February 2 that revealed that in September 2023 the President of Hungary Novak Katalin had given clemency to a deputy principal of a children’s home who was serving 3 years and 4 months for his role in protecting a paedophile who had preyed on children under his care.
The deputy principal (K. Endre) had been imprisoned because he:
• Had known that the principal (V. János) had molested multiple children
• Made one of the children write a fake confession stating that he had made up his claims of the principal pulling down his pants and masturbating him
• Made the child sign this fake confession in his own office.
The public outcry online and in the media as a result of Kaufmann Balazs’s reporting was swift. Nine popular content creators who cover public life in Hungary banded together to hold a protest at Heroes’ Square dubbed the “influencer protest”.
Ironically, the article, published on a Friday night at 8:28pm – the graveyard of news reporting when nothing important is ever released – could end up having set up a chain of events that buries Hungary’s longest-serving Prime Minister.
The President resigns
Just eight days after the bombshell expose, the then President Novak Katalin resigned in disgrace for her role in granting clemency to K. Endre.
It was particularly damaging for Orban Viktor because he had appointed her as Hungary’s first female president just two years prior — and there were high hopes for her future in the party.
For a party that prides itself on supposedly “family first” policies, letting people off the hook for their role in protecting paedophiles when they are meant to be protecting children in government care was an embarasing misstep.
The Justice Minister resigns
In another bombshell resignation, on the same day as the President’s resignation, Justice Minister Varga Judit also resigned in this Facebook post.
She resigned for her role in counter-signing the President’s clemency for paedophile protector K. Endre.
It was a double blow for Orban with yet another high-profile woman in Orban’s government bowing out. Analysts often talk about Fidesz’s “cadre shortage” due to the loss of several high-profile and talented players, and this latest resignation plays into that.
To add insult to injury, it is Varga Judit’s ex-husband Magyar Peter has since become the opposition leader posing a serious threat to Orban’s power.
Magyar Peter appears out of nowhere
Just two days later, Magyar Peter’s rise in Hungarian politics starts. On 12 February 2024 he sat down with Partizan and gave this interview. During the interview he listed many of his grievances with Fidesz (the propaganda government media, the prevalent corruption, the nepotism among others).
Who he is (a right-leaning, former Fidesz insider from a prominent legal family), what he said (plainly the grievances so many Hungarians have) and how he said (eloquently, forcefully) struck a cord.
Within months he had created a political party called Tisza and won almost 30% at the EU Parliament elections. He drew tens of thousands of protesters onto the street in a series of protests. He visited countless villages, towns and regional cities during a tour of the country. He gained almost half a million Facebook followers with posts regularly getting 20,000+ likes (consistently much higher than the Prime Minister’s own posts). Over summer and leading into autumn, polls showed a clear trend of his party closing in on Fidesz. Almost all of the smaller opposition parties disintegrated. And, he managed to withstand the relentless character attacks against him — often seeming to relish in hitting back harder.
The original interview now has more than 2.5 million views on YouTube.
Tisza blows it out of the park at EU elections
The EU Parliament elections on June 9 was Fidesz’s opportunity to squash Magyar Peter’s rise in its infancy.
Unfortunately for Orban, Magyar Peter’s fledgeling Tisza party well-outperformed expectations getting 29.6% of the vote and 7 seats in the EU Parliament. Although, Fidesz won the biggest slice of the pie with 44.8% of the vote, it was their worst performance ever at an EU election.
Not bad for a party that had been in existence for mere months, and a person who had been in public life for exactly 119 days.
In more bad news for Fidesz, the outcome cemented Magyar Peter in public life for at least the length of the 5-year parliamentary term. It gave him gravitas and a platform as a leading European politician. And showed that he could perform electorally.
To add insult to injury, the Tisza Party was invited into the European People’s Party faction of the EU Parliament – the biggest group… and coincidentally Fidesz’s former group.
Orban's Political Director bashes the '56 revolution
I do feel for Orban sometimes as he really does carry the show and in 2024 he has been let down by countless people who he is meant to be able to rely on.
In September, Orban’s Political Director Orban Balazs (no relation) mouthed off in an interview about about Hungary’s 1956 revolution. He basically said that based on Hungary’s experience of the quashed uprising, Hungary would not have done what Ukraine is doing in fighting back against Russia, calling it “irresponsible.” He essentially added that due to the loss of life Ukraine and Hungary’s loss against Russia it’s basically not worth fighting back and protecting your homeland.
What a craven traitor.
Anyway, Orban B apologised and kept his job but Orban V did come out and mop up after him calling his comments a “mistake.”
Orban B further added that if the need ever arose he would be there with a gun in hand to defend the country….Hmmmmm could have fooled me.
Laterin, Orban Balazs was accused of funny business with his doctoral thesis when it was revealed that parts of his thesis were written on someone else’s computer.
A pro-Fidesz priest comes out as gay
In September, Bese Gergo – a Catholic parish priest who has been a high-profile supporter of Fidesz for years (i.e. he consecrated the Prime Minister’s office in the Carmelite Monastery of Buda, and he was publicly anti-gay in support of Fidesz’s “pro traditional family” stance) – embarrassed the government when it came to light that he was in gay porn videos and event took part in gay orgies.
Why is it relevant? For a political party that is obsessed with presenting itself as conservative, traditional and holier-than-thou the number of hypocrites in Fidesz’s orbit leading private lives completely opposite of their judgy public personas is starting to pile up. (I’m looking at you Szajer Jozsef).
Anyway, Orban allegedly removed all joint photos with Bese Gergo from his Facebook page. And the priest was suspended.
The economy sucks
Although lots of countries in Europe are suffering with inflation, it has been particularly high in Hungary over the last couple of years.
Economic hardship means that people are more primed than ever to re-consider whether Orban is the right leader for the country.
Varga vs matolcsy
Recession
Forint at record lows
In 2023, the average inflation rate in Hungary was a whopping 17%, and it will be about an average of 3.8% inflation on top of that (!!) in 2024. People are really feeling it.
Billions of euros in EU funds remain withheld from Hungary because it won’t make certain reforms relating to issues like corruption, conflicts of interest, public procurement transparency etc. People are really feeling this too as Hungary really relies on that money.
And, although Fidesz has been trying with multiple economic incentives to increase the birthrate (cheaper loans and tax breaks for those with kids — not bad ideas in theory), in June the country registered a record low number of 6,000 births.
“It’s the economy stupid” is a political phrase that is as true in Hungary as it is anywhere, and with elections looming in less than 18 months, Orban will be preying for a miracle. But with what levers? And what new ideas? The cupboards are bare.
Nothing Fidesz tries works against Magyar Peter
Poor Orban ends 2024 without having crushed Magyar Peter. So out of touch with any form of opposition, he has been caught flat-footed.
They have tried ignoring him. They have tried painting him as a lefty (he’s not) and in the pocket of Brussels (no again). They have tried humiliating him with ad hominem attacks like calling him Psycho-Pete. They have appeared to encourage his ex-wife and ex-girlfriend to do disparaging interviews about him. They have been linked to the release of secret tape recordings designed to embarrass him.
Hasn’t worked yet! And Magyar Peter appears to be going from strength-to-strength…maybe even because Fidesz is going so hard at him people are closing ranks behind him.
In any case, right now there are no signs that this chain of negative events will break in the New Year even as Fidesz scrambles to stem this avalanche of excrement.
And if 2025 pans out to be annus horribilis mark II, Orban would probably gladly trade spots with the Queen of 1992 — all she had to contend with were a few divorces.
