In 2024 and 2025, many signs indicate that Fidesz is in big trouble. Whether it comes true at the elections – time will tell – but for now here are some of the signals that don’t look good for Hungarian PM Viktor Orban.
This article is continuously updated.
1. Music clip highlighting Orban's corruption gets 15 million views in one month
Often it is artists and creative people who feel and project the zeitgeist of the time.
Majka is a popular rapper in Hungary — popular with the everyday person living in panel buildings, regional cities, suburbs and small towns. He is a kind of voice for and to the normal person — not liberal elites, not people who live in Budapest. He has supported Fidesz in the past, and has benefit from the existing system.
So, it was a big surprise for him to release a diss track against Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. I did a full run-down on the song itself here, but essentially it talks about what a crook Orban is, how much money he’s stolen, and how he tricks people into voting for him. It’s a brutal takedown.
The fact that this song has almost 15 million views in just over a month is insane. In a country of not even 10 million people! And unlike English-language content this viewership would not be a global audience but basically only Hungarians.
Even if you consider that a chunk of these would be multiple listens, it would still be millions of Hungarians who have seen this caricature of Orban portrayed a grotesque individual.
Given the message and the messenger this is a clear signal that more and more people can see Orban for who he is and what he’s done.
*This article is continuously updated, but this section was written on 23 February 2025.
2. Documentary on Orban's family corruption gets more than 3 million views in 2 weeks
Not long after the release of Csurran, cseppen (see above), the same topic of Orban’s corruption was covered in a different way. A serious investigative documentary showcasing the Orban family’s nepotism and enrichment.
*This article is continuously updated, but this section was written on 23 February 2025.
3. Peter Magyar's family photo gets more than 150,000 likes on Facebook
A Facebook post that Peter Magyar posted before Christmas showing him with two of his sons in front of a Christmas tree got more than 150,000 likes. It actually made the news — that’s how significant this number of likes is in a country of 10 million people.
4. 56% of Hungarians say they want a change of government
5. Anthing to do with Peter Magyar gets huge engagement on social media
It’s like the Trump effect in 2015 where media organisations covered his every move because of the clicks and views it got them. Trump was good for the media business. Similarly, Peter Magyar has managed to keep himself in the daily news cycle and media in Hungary has lapped it up. Political podcasts get tens of thousands of views on YouTube, political analysts are being invited on panel discussions all over the country. There is renewed interest in politics and the drama of it.
When you’re trying to build up a political party and get your name out there, getting this level of saturated coverage can only be a good thing. Conversely, it’s not a good sign for Orban that his opponent is getting all this free advertising and PR. But above all, it signals the huge level of interest in Peter Magyar, which can only mean that people are considering their options.
Peter Magyar sitting down with the Chief of the Hungarian Defence Forces Ruszin-Szendi Romulusz for a chat: 200,000 views. His New Year’s Eve speech: 660,000 views. An advert about his October 23 rally: 535,000 views. This is a huge level of engagement in a country of 10 million people.
That’s not all, when something Peter Magyar does is directly pitted against something Viktor Orban does the numbers are an interesting signal. Orban advertised that he would release a slick Covid update praising himself about how well he handled the pandemic. So Peter quickly decided to do one himself and started his YouTube live at exactly the same moment Orban’s video was published. Peter’s got almost 300,000 views compared to Orban’s 194,000 views.
6. Hundreds of Tisza Sziget fan clubs are popping up all over Hungary
One of the ways Tisza is unique is the grassroots support they are building with an army of supporters all over the country. Tisza szigets (which translates to Tisza islands) are essentially fan clubs that meet up, talk about their needs, invite guest speakers, organise events, and plan how they can organise ahead of the elections, and generally motivate and support each other.
It’s a community of communities. An army of volunteers. A movement.
They act as a ready and willing volunteer base that Tisza can lean on when needed — whether it’s organising events, collecting signatures, handing out leaflets, or being there on polling day. Many of them have Facebook groups and pages resulting in even more reach and engagement for content relating to Tisza. And they are also a training ground for potential future leaders of the party apparatus — and possibly even candidates.
7. Opinion polls show a worrying trend for Fidesz
Probably one of the most worrying trends is that Tisza has overtaken Fidesz in many polls – and even poll average. And not by a couple of points that fall within the margin of error but by 11 points! I mean 11 points is not some slim margin that could be a simple polling mistake. And, while yes, the election is more than a year away trends count and this kind of support can attract even more support as people flock to what they perceive to be the winning team.
8. It's the economy, stupid
There is no question that the Hungarian economy is limping along. Inflation is extremely high and people experience this daily in the supermarkets. Pays remain stubbornly low. Money that was meant to come in from the EU remains frozen. Financially, the kitchen cabinet is bare and Hungary it has taken on a billion euro loan from China (!) of all places.
Like Bill Clinton’s advisor James Carville famously said in 1992 about the main factor influencing voters: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Despite Orban saying at the start of 2025 that the economy would take a “flying start”……..it seems to be flying more like the Jeju Air plane at that South Korean airport that crashed into a concrete wall at the end of the runway.
9. Hungarians are turning up for Tisza rallies in the middle of winter
One of the most important things Peter can do is go from city to city, town to town, village to village drumming up support for Tisza. During spring, summer and autumn Peter regularly got thousands of people to turn out for his rallies — which was an incredible feat in and of itself. But, you could be forgiven for thinking this work should pause during winter when it’s freezing cold and no one wants to stand outdoors for hours on end. But, you would be wrong! Incredible scenes, for example, in the photo above showing Bekescsaba’s square filled with thousands of people on March 1 when it was about -1 degrees at night.
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