In 1992, Queen Elizabeth II made a speech to the British Parliament in which she declared the year her “annus horribilis”. To start with, her son Prince Andrew had separated from Sarah Ferguson Duchess of York. This was followed by her daughter, Princess Anne, announcing her divorce in the spring. And in summer, gossip about Prince Charles’s failing marriage to Diana reached fever pitch. Before autumn had ended, Windsor Castle was literally on fire.
“1992 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an annus horribilis.” — Queen Elizabeth II
Five countries over and 32 years later, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban might take solace in the fact that all leaders have terrible years from time to time. Here’s a look at why Orban is likely to look back on 2024 as his annus horribilis.
Report reveals the President gave a paedophile clemency
It all kicked off with this article on February 2 that revealed that in September 2023 the President of Hungary Novak Katalin had given clemency to a deputy principal of a children’s home who was serving 3 years and 4 months for his role in protecting a paedophile who had preyed on children under his care.
The deputy principal (K. Endre) had been imprisoned because he:
• Had known that the principal (V. János) had molested multiple children
• Made one of the children write a fake confession stating that he had made up his claims of the principal pulling down his pants and masturbating him
• Made the child sign this fake confession in his own office.
The public outcry online and in the media as a result of Kaufmann Balazs’s reporting was swift. Nine popular content creators who cover public life in Hungary banded together to hold a protest at Heroes’ Square dubbed the “influencer protest”.
Ironically, the article, published on a Friday night at 8:28pm – the graveyard of news reporting when nothing important is ever released – could end up having set up a chain of events that buries Hungary’s longest-serving Prime Minister.
The President resigns
Just eight days after the bombshell expose, the then President Novak Katalin resigned in disgrace for her role in granting clemency to K. Endre.
It was particularly damaging for Orban because he had appointed her as Hungary’s first female president just two years prior — and there were high hopes for her future in the party.
For a party that prides itself on supposedly “family first” policies, letting people off the hook for their role in protecting paedophiles when they are meant to be protecting children in government care was an embarrassing and disgraceful misstep.
The Justice Minister resigns
In another bombshell resignation, on the same day as the President’s resignation, then then Justice Minister Varga Judit also resigned in this Facebook post.
She resigned for her role in counter-signing the President’s clemency for paedophile protector K. Endre.
It was a double blow for Orban with yet another high-profile woman in Orban’s government bowing out. Analysts often talk about Fidesz’s “cadre shortage” due to the loss of several high-profile and talented players, and this latest resignation plays into that.
To add insult to injury, it is Varga Judit’s ex-husband Peter Magyar who would soon become the opposition leader posing a serious threat to Orban’s power.
Peter Magyar appears out of nowhere
Just days after these high-profile resignations, Peter Magyar’s rise in Hungarian politics starts. On 12 February 2024 he sat down with the independent media platform, Partizan, and gave this interview. During the interview, he listed many of his grievances with Fidesz (propaganda, corruption, nepotism etc). He felt that Novak Katalin and Varga Judit were made scapegoats. He was a whistleblower of sorts as he was a Fidesz insider speaking out.
Who he is (a right-leaning, former Fidesz insider from a prominent legal family), what he said (the grievances of so many Hungarians have), and how he said (eloquently, forcefully, bravely) struck a cord. The interview now has more than 2.5 million views on YouTube
Within months he had created a political party called Tisza and won almost 30% at the EU Parliament elections. He drew tens of thousands of people to a series of rallies across the country. He visited countless villages, towns and regional cities. His social posts regularly getting 20,000+ likes (consistently much higher than the Prime Minister’s own posts). Leading into Christmas, polls had consistently showed a clear trend of his party closing in on Fidesz — and then even overtaking them. Almost all of the smaller opposition parties disintegrated. And, MP managed to withstand the relentless character attacks against him — often seeming to relish in hitting back harder.
If you had to pinpoint one thing that made 2024 a truly terrible, no good, very bad year for Orban it would be Peter Magyar.
Tisza blows it out of the park at EU elections
The EU Parliament elections on June 9 was Fidesz’s opportunity to squash Peter Magyar’s rise in its infancy.
Unfortunately for Orban, Peter Magyar’s fledgeling Tisza party well-outperformed expectations getting 29.6% of the vote and 7 seats in the EU Parliament. Although, Fidesz won the biggest slice of the pie with 44.8% of the vote, it was their worst performance ever at an EU election.
Not bad for a party that had been in existence for mere months, and a person who had been in public life for exactly 119 days.
In more bad news for Fidesz, the outcome cemented Peter Magyar in public life for at least the length of the 5-year parliamentary term. It gave him gravitas and a platform as a leading European politician. And showed that he could perform electorally.
To add insult to injury, the Tisza Party was invited into the European People’s Party faction of the EU Parliament – the biggest faction… and Fidesz’s former faction.
Orban's Political Director bashes the '56 revolution
I do feel for Orban sometimes as he really does carry the show and in 2024 he has been let down by countless people who he is meant to be able to rely on.
In September, Orban’s Political Director Orban Balazs (no relation) mouthed off in an interview about about Hungary’s 1956 revolution. He basically said that based on Hungary’s experience of the quashed uprising, Hungary would not have done what Ukraine is doing in fighting back against Russia, calling it “irresponsible.” He essentially added that due to the loss of life Ukraine and Hungary’s loss against Russia it’s basically not worth fighting back and protecting your homeland.
What a craven traitor.
Anyway, Orban B apologised and kept his job but Orban V did come out and mop up after him calling his comments a “mistake” and clumsy.
Orban B further added that if the need ever arose he would be there with a gun in hand defending the country….Hmmmmm this kind of person is all talk. This is the kind of person who would be off safely in a cafe somewhere writing books about whether the ones doing the real fighting were doing a worthwhile job or not. Maybe even using someone else’s computer 😉
More bad news
Although none as bad as the clemency story, throughout the year there was a constant drip, drip, drip of bad news, including:
- In March, this article revealed just how much access Russian hackers had within the Foreign Ministry’s computer networks.
- In June, Fidesz suspended Szentkiralyi Alexandra’s campaign for Budapest Mayor as the polls were showing she would come in third and this loss would be more embarrassing for Fidesz than the embarrassment of withdrawing their candidate just days before the vote.
- In August, Hungary’s heatwaves broke records. The unprecedented hot weather, resulted in attention on the lack of appropriate cooling systems in hospitals and caused issues with the train network as well. Both healthcare and transport were key focuses of Peter Magyar’s during the year and the heatwave helped bring the issues into stark relief.
- In September, Bese Gergo – a Catholic priest who was a high-profile supporter of Fidesz (i.e. he consecrated the Prime Minister’s office and was publicly anti-gay in support of Fidesz’s “pro traditional family” stance) – embarrassed the government when it came to light that he was in gay porn videos and even took part in gay orgies.
- In December, it was revealed that for the January to November period there was a 9.6% drop in birthrate compared to 2023. For a government that constantly tries to position itself as the most family-friendly party this is an unhelpful result — especially as it comes years into various programs that Fidesz claims are meant to help families grow.
The economy is not helping things
As they famously say in US politics “It’s the economy, stupid!” So would Fidesz be in so much trouble if the economy didn’t suck? Here are some of the troubling economic issues plaguing Fidesz:
- Hungarians don’t feel like they earn enough and they feel things are too expensive — beyond any data points this is most critical because it’s how people feel about their personal finances that matter more than anything
- Inflation is high
- The economy is stagnant
- The forint is weak
- Tens of millions of euros in EU money are being withheld putting the squeeze on
- Trump didn’t end up solving the Russian war in Ukraine in 24 hours like he promised so uncertainty around energy prices remain
- After praising him to the high heavens for many years Orban started accusing Matolcsy György of fiscal mismanagement (and vice versa to be fair), and put in Finance Minister Varga Mihály as the governor of Hungary’s central bank instead leading to questions about whether anyone knows what the hell they’re doing
With elections looming in less than 18 months, Orban will be praying for an economic miracle. But with what levers? And what new ideas? And what money? The cupboards are bare.
Is there a mole in Fidesz?
Omertà is the Italian term for the code of silence, honour and conduct that requires mafia gang members not to cooperate or communicate with anyone who could threaten the group.
So who is the mole within Fidesz breaking their seemingly iron-clad principles of omertà?
Peter Magyar seems to know certain things ahead of time — like that Vogel Evelin’s surreptitiously recorded tapes were about to be released.
MP had a lot of contacts and friends within Fidesz as he was once one of them. It can’t be a good feeling for Orban to know that there might be some traitors within Fidesz.
Nothing Fidesz tries works against Peter Magyar
Poor Orban ends 2024 without having crushed Peter Magyar. He (and Fidesz more broadly) is so out of touch with having any form of opposition, he has been caught flat-footed.
They have tried ignoring him. They have tried painting him as a Lefty (he’s not). They have tried to say he’s in the pocket of Brussels (no again). Or backed by Soros (nope). They have tried humiliating him with ad hominem attacks like calling him Psycho-Pete. They have appeared to encourage his ex-wife and ex-girlfriend to do disparaging interviews about him. They have been linked to the release of secret tape recordings designed to embarrass him. They have even set their pitbull Tamas Menczer onto him who accosted him as he was trying to give Christmas gifts to children in need.
None of it has worked! Yet anyway. And Peter Magyar appears to be going from strength-to-strength…maybe even because Fidesz is going so hard at him people are closing ranks behind him. And he is emboldened by the fact that none of this working that he seems more and more confident.
In any case, right now there are no signs that this chain of negative events will break in the New Year even as Fidesz scrambles to stem this avalanche of excrement.
And if 2025 pans out to be annus horribilis mark II, Orban would probably gladly trade spots with the Queen of 1992 — all she had to contend with were a few errant children.
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